AGP Executive Report

Logistics: India will set up an Integrated Transport and Logistics Authority to coordinate roads, rail, ports, aviation and other networks under a 10-year master plan. A shared data repository will track freight and projects worth ₹500 crore or more; the logistics sector is projected to reach $600 billion by 2031-32. Start-ups: Menswear brand The Pant Project raised ₹109 crore in a Series B round led by Mirae Asset Venture. It plans to expand from 25 stores to 150 and enter jeans, athleisure and casualwear. Renewable Energy: KKR is set to invest more than ₹6,000 crore in Petronas’ Indian renewables arm, Gentari, to support expansion and reduce debt, with a possible option to take a stake later. Manufacturing: Haier plans to invest ₹7,000 crore in an Andhra Pradesh appliance plant, with production expected to begin in 2028 and up to 21,000 direct and indirect jobs projected by 2032. Regional Trade: Indian business delegations visited Sri Lanka to explore investment and partnerships in sectors including healthcare, energy, manufacturing, logistics and IT.

Markets: Nine of India’s 10 most-valued firms added ₹3.65 lakh crore last week as the Sensex and Nifty rallied. Investors now turn to quarterly earnings, crude prices, foreign flows and Jio Platforms’ IPO, which opens October 21. Energy and Trade: Russian crude imports fell 13% in September, but a US waiver of Russia-related sanctions offers India temporary relief, not certainty. Drug Prices: Trade margins on 137 cancer medicines will be capped at 30% of MRP from November 9, with prices expected to fall by up to 70%. Investment: The Centre is considering a new mining law to simplify rules and improve ease of doing business. India’s EFTA trade pact is also drawing interest from Norwegian investors in manufacturing, renewable energy and infrastructure. Startups: Delhi has approved ₹50 crore for a new foundation to help startups and MSMEs access testing facilities, mentorship and investors.

Energy and Trade: Washington waived threatened penalties on India’s Russian oil purchases, easing near-term pressure on fuel costs and exporters. But the relief is temporary, leaving businesses exposed to shifting US policy. Economic Outlook: India’s September merchandise trade deficit widened to $30.21 billion as imports outpaced exports. Wholesale inflation accelerated to 11.39%, driven by higher oil and food prices. Healthcare Costs: A 30% cap on trade margins for 137 cancer drugs takes effect November 9; the government expects prices to fall by up to 70% in some cases. Trade Deals: India has notified its first tariff cuts under the New Zealand FTA, effective October 20, including zero duty on specified sheep-meat imports. Delhi Business: Traders say protests disrupted festive-season sales, with losses estimated at ₹3,000 crore.

Banking: The RBI approved the merger of Emirates NBD’s three Indian branches into RBL Bank from December 1, following Emirates NBD’s acquisition of a 60% stake. Central Bank of India reported a 21.1% rise in quarterly standalone profit to ₹1,469 crore. Markets: Foreign investors bought ₹1,166 crore of Indian shares on Friday, though they remained net sellers for the ninth straight week. Trade: Canada-India talks advanced, with a Canadian trade mission reporting 34 commercial agreements worth nearly $300 million. India is also promoting rupee settlements to keep trade flowing with partners short of foreign currency. Energy: Washington’s waiver of planned Russia-oil tariff penalties offers India temporary relief, but the threat could return; the IMF warned prolonged high energy prices could fuel inflation. Growth: Deloitte sees 7.1–7.3% growth in FY27, with private investment key to sustaining momentum. Infrastructure & Digital: Highway projects awarded rose 63% in April–September, while a CareEdge report ranked India’s digital public infrastructure among the world’s 10 most effective reforms.

Rupee & Reserves: India’s forex reserves fell $8.58 billion to $726 billion in the week to October 9, extending a six-week decline as the RBI supports the rupee. Trade Deals: India and the US say the first phase of a trade pact is finalised and in legal drafting, while Canada reported 34 deals worth nearly $300 million during its trade mission to India as both sides push to conclude a wider agreement. Exports: Merchandise exports jumped 23% in September to $44.4 billion, but the goods trade deficit widened to $30.21 billion; services exports also dipped. Growth & Energy: The IMF sees India growing 7% this fiscal year and becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. BloombergNEF expects non-fossil sources to exceed 60% of power capacity by 2028, with NTPC set to test solar-thermal technology for round-the-clock clean power. Delhi Business: Traders say protests and security restrictions in Connaught Place and Janpath have cut festive-season footfall and sales.

Trade & Investment: India’s exports rose 23% in September to $44.4 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $30.21 billion; first-phase US trade-pact terms are finalised, with legal drafting under way. An India–New Zealand FTA takes effect October 20, while Canada talks target year-end. Corporate & Markets: Jio Platforms plans to raise up to $3.2 billion in what could be India’s largest IPO. Bajaj Housing Finance’s Q2 profit rose 18% to ₹757 crore, and L&T Finance’s climbed 33% to ₹975 crore. Finance & Industry: India approved a rollover of its ₹30 billion currency-swap facility for the Maldives, while forex reserves fell $8.58 billion to $726.03 billion. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Japan’s JBIC chief discussed investment in clean energy, semiconductors and critical minerals. Economic Risks: The IMF warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep energy prices high and fuel inflation in India.

Banking Deal: Fairfax has been selected to buy a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank for about $5.6 billion and plans to combine it with its Indian insurance and investment businesses; approvals are still required. Chairman Prem Watsa says the bet reflects confidence in India’s growth over the next decade. Digital Economy: Ahead of its IPO, Jio unveiled plans to expand across mobile, broadband and enterprise services, and export its technology stack. Trade: India says the first tranche of its US trade pact is in legal drafting, with implementation tied to securing an edge over competing exporters. Canada’s trade mission to India secured about 30 partnerships worth $300 million as both countries pursue a trade deal. Exports: September merchandise exports rose 23% year on year to $44.4 billion, while the trade deficit widened from August to $30.21 billion but was below a year earlier. Growth Outlook: The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for India to 7% and projects the economy will overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest in 2027. Manufacturing: Stellantis plans to invest ₹4,000 crore and launch 12 Jeep and Citroën models in India by 2030.

US Trade: India says the first phase of its trade deal with the US is finalised and under legal drafting, while Ambassador Sergio Gor says major issues are settled. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s upcoming India visit is expected to focus on energy cooperation and remaining trade differences. Jio IPO: Reliance’s digital arm set a ₹1,065–1,119 price band for a planned ₹30,000-crore listing, potentially India’s biggest IPO, opening October 21. Manufacturing: Hyundai inaugurated its Pune plant, starting with capacity for 1.7 lakh vehicles a year and plans to scale up as part of a broader ₹1.47-lakh-crore India investment. Trade: September merchandise exports jumped 23% year-on-year to $44.4 billion, while the deficit narrowed from a year earlier. The India-New Zealand FTA takes effect October 20; India and Canada aim to conclude their pact by year-end. Investment and growth: The Cabinet approved Fairfax’s ₹52,878-crore acquisition of a controlling stake in IDBI Bank. The IMF raised India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7% and expects the country to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. Inflation: Wholesale inflation hit 11.39% in September, adding to pressure from high fuel costs and a weaker rupee.

Markets & IPOs: Jio Platforms set a ₹1,065–1,119 price band for its ₹30,213-crore IPO, India’s largest, opening October 21. Banking: The Cabinet approved Fairfax’s ₹52,878-crore bid for a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank, the biggest foreign investment in India’s financial sector. Investment: Hyundai plans to invest $15.5 billion in India through 2032, expanding manufacturing, R&D and local supply chains, with ambitions beyond cars in infrastructure and energy. Economy: September wholesale inflation surged to 11.39% amid higher food and fuel costs, while the IMF projects 7% growth for India in FY27. Trade: India and the US say negotiations are nearing a “landing point”; India and Canada are pushing to conclude a trade pact, potentially by year-end.

Inflation and Bonds: Wholesale inflation accelerated to 11.39% in September, led by fuel and power prices, while government bond yields climbed to a three-year high amid inflation and rate-hike concerns. Auto Investment: Hyundai Motor India will invest ₹11,000 crore to nearly double capacity at its Pune plant by 2030, as the group ramps up its India expansion. Banking: The Cabinet approved Fairfax’s ₹52,878-crore purchase of a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank, set to become the biggest foreign investment in India’s financial sector. Trade Ties: India and Canada are seeking to deepen cooperation on trade, investment and energy, with both countries aiming to double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030. Growth Outlook: The IMF projects India’s economy will grow 7% in 2026, retaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy. China Trade: India’s trade deficit with China topped $100 billion in the first nine months of the year, despite a sharp rise in Indian exports.

Markets: Sensex and Nifty rebounded more than 1.5% on Tuesday as IT shares surged, led by HCLTech after strong quarterly results and record deal bookings. Growth: The IMF raised India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7%, citing resilient domestic demand and services, while warning that higher energy prices could push global inflation up. Investment: Hyundai Motor Group pledged $15.5 billion in India through 2032 for manufacturing, R&D and local supply chains. Adani Enterprises and US-based Jabil also plan a 50:50 venture to make AI and data-centre hardware in India. Payments: Planned merchant fees on some large UPI transactions have been delayed until after Diwali, giving businesses more time to prepare. Trade and prices: India and the UK are targeting $120 billion in annual trade by 2030 under their trade pact. Meanwhile, September retail inflation rose to 5.54%, a near two-year high, and pressure on the rupee and foreign investment flows remains in focus.

Growth Outlook: The IMF raised India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7%, citing strong domestic demand and services activity, but warned inflation could average 5% as food and fuel costs face pressure from El Niño and crude prices. Markets and Borrowing: State borrowing costs topped 8% for the first time in more than six years, while the benchmark bond yield neared 7.4%; bonds recovered slightly as investors returned, and the rupee gained after RBI measures. Digital Payments: NPCI postponed a planned 0.4% merchant fee on UPI transactions above ₹2,000 until after Diwali, delaying a change that would end years of zero-cost payments. Innovation Funding: The government committed ₹7,131 crore to 19 fund managers under its research and development scheme, aiming to draw matching private investment. Corporate Finance: Adani Enterprises is looking to raise about ₹20 billion through short-term rupee bonds for general corporate needs. Singapore Ties: Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong is visiting New Delhi and Chennai to strengthen economic links.

Markets & Savings: Equity mutual fund inflows climbed 31% to a five-month high of ₹38,307 crore in September, while SIP contributions set a record at ₹32,490 crore—even as the Sensex and Nifty fell about 6%. Inflation & Rupee: September inflation rose to 5.54%, near the RBI’s upper tolerance limit, strengthening rate-hike concerns. The rupee rebounded nearly 1% after the central bank moved to curb speculative trading. Banking Deal: Abu Dhabi’s IHC and First Abu Dhabi Bank are among potential investors discussing a stake in Bandhan Bank’s promoter, which could give early backers an exit. Trade & Investment: A UK business mission arrived as both countries push to double bilateral trade by 2030; UK firms announced deals worth £1 billion. GE Aerospace also plans to raise India sourcing to $400 million by 2030, while Tata Motors and Stellantis agreed to jointly develop vehicles in India. Medicine Costs: The government’s 30% trade-margin cap on non-scheduled cancer drugs could save patients an estimated ₹2,500 crore a year; the Supreme Court has urged a wider review of medicine pricing.

Trade and Investment: UK businesses announced £1 billion in deals as more than 100 firms joined a trade mission to India, spanning AI, aviation, healthcare and infrastructure. Auto Manufacturing: Tata Motors and Stellantis will develop vehicles for more than 50 markets and build them in India, reinforcing the country’s role as an export and engineering base. Capital Flows: Japan led FDI into India in April–June with $5.71 billion, nearly 29% of total equity inflows; much of the investment was in financial services and acquisitions. Tech and Industry: Chip-engineering firm Tessolve raised $75 million to fund acquisitions, while GE Aerospace plans to nearly double Indian supplier spending to $400 million by 2030. Markets and Inflation: September retail inflation rose to 5.54%, strengthening rate-hike concerns. The Nifty fell 0.7% on Monday as oil prices and monsoon worries weighed on shares, despite the rupee’s rebound after RBI measures. Business Conditions: Delhi traders said protest-related closures and access restrictions caused revenue losses; separately, office leasing was flat at 66.7 million sq ft in the first nine months, with GCCs supporting demand.

Rupee and RBI: The RBI will meet the daily dollar needs of three state-run oil firms, aiming to ease pressure on the rupee, which closed near a record low. Analysts warn relief may be temporary. Markets: Sensex and Nifty snapped an eight-week losing streak, but sustaining the rebound will depend on earnings as banks face funding pressure and weaker margins. Growth: Global institutions have raised India’s growth forecasts, while the RBI sees stronger demand ahead in manufacturing and services. Steel: A draft policy targets 604 million tonnes of capacity by 2047, alongside higher demand, exports and cleaner production. Consumer demand: Festive online sales got off to a strong start, with premium products leading; September EV sales hit a record 3.33 lakh, up 74% year on year. Investment and trade: Japan invested $5.71 billion in India in the first quarter of FY27, while the India-UK trade deal is projected to lift annual bilateral trade by £25.5 billion by 2040.

Growth Outlook: OECD, S&P Global, Fitch, the ADB and Moody’s have lifted their India growth forecasts to around 7%, citing resilient domestic demand and economic momentum. Markets: The Sensex and Nifty snapped an eight-week losing streak, gaining 1.23% and 1.3% on Friday as IT shares rallied; analysts say a sustained recovery depends on breaking key resistance levels. Steel Push: A draft policy targets 604 million tonnes of steelmaking capacity by 2047, from about 220 million now, while aiming to cut emissions and reduce reliance on imported coking coal. Investment: Japan was India’s largest FDI source in the first quarter of FY27, with $5.71 billion in inflows—nearly 29% of total equity inflows. Telecom Stakes: Jio Platforms is preparing for a $106 billion IPO as Elon Musk promises affordable Starlink service in India; both satellite ventures await security clearance. Small Businesses: Telangana plans a Centre of Excellence to help MSMEs adopt technology, reach markets and attract investment.