AGP Executive Report

Data Centres & AI Infrastructure: Blackstone-backed AirTrunk plans a $21.05 bn, 3GW data centre near Mumbai in Maharashtra, as India courts massive foreign tech investment with tax incentives. Cloud & Digital Economy: Gartner forecasts India’s public cloud spending to jump 28.1% to $17.5 bn in 2026, driven by AI-ready infrastructure and faster enterprise adoption. Trade Policy: UK Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is in New Delhi to fast-track the India-UK FTA; meanwhile, India may revisit Scotch whisky tariff perks if UK steel safeguards hurt Indian exports. Defence Procurement: India has issued a Letter of Request to France for 114 Rafale jets in a ~Rs 3.25 lakh crore deal, with most aircraft planned for Make-in-India manufacturing. Fiscal Watch: India’s FY26 fiscal deficit is at 4.4% of GDP, with FY27 target set at 4.3%. Banking/Corporate: Axis Bank raises its Axis Max Life stake to 19.99%; CBI gets court nod to arrest Amitabh Jhunjhunwala in a major bank-loan fraud case. Sports Media: Zee wins FIFA World Cup 2026 broadcast rights in India through 2034, ending a rights standoff. Energy Security: NLC India and Reliance explore underground lignite gasification in Gujarat to cut LNG dependence.

GenAI Adoption: India ranks 5th globally in GenAI usage, with the SIDE 2026 report noting diffusion is broad-based in developing countries. Manufacturing Pulse: HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to a 3-month high of 55.0 in May as new orders and output picked up, even as costs stayed intense. RBI Watch: Economists expect the MPC to hold rates steady despite May inflation risks, rupee weakness and higher bond yields. Markets & Rates: Indian government bonds slipped early as oil prices firmed on Middle East tensions ahead of the June 5 policy decision; Sensex and Nifty rebounded on blue-chip buying. Trade: India–Oman CEPA kicks in from June 1, aiming to boost goods exports and services access; India–US trade talks resume in New Delhi to finalise an interim pact. Energy Costs: Commercial LPG prices were hiked again (Delhi +₹42 to ₹3,113.50 per 19-kg cylinder), squeezing restaurants and hotels. Digital Payments: RBI is looking to expand digital rupee use for welfare payments and cross-border pilots. Real Estate: Mumbai saw 14-year high May registrations (12,315), while home prices in MMR and Pune continued to rise. Civic & Safety: A fire broke out at Delhi’s Ministry of Education building in ITO; in Navi Mumbai, residents raised concerns over muddy drinking water despite testing claims.

US-India Trade: Senior negotiators from India and the US will hold four days of talks in New Delhi to finalise an interim trade pact, with negotiators led by Darpan Jain and Brendan Lynch. India-Oman CEPA: India’s CEPA with Oman kicks in June 1, offering zero duty access for most labour-intensive exports, while India’s rules of origin and customs notifications come into force. Markets & Stocks: ICICI Securities reiterated BUY calls on Star Cement (target Rs 250) and Max Estates (target Rs 610), citing volume growth and strong launch/collections visibility. Real Estate (Mumbai): May property registrations in Mumbai hit a 14-year high at 12,315 units, up 7% YoY, signalling continued demand. Aviation Digital Push: Digi Yatra crossed 10 crore passenger journeys across 38 airports, underscoring India’s push for paperless travel. Regulation & Compliance: Delhi’s MCD suspended two engineers after a building collapse near Saket Metro; separately, legal metrology reforms are being reviewed to ease business compliance. Energy & Water: Navi Mumbai urged conservation as Morbe Dam usable stock fell to about 60 days. Security & Crime: Mumbai Crime Branch took custody of drug trafficker Salim Dola after NCB arrest; probe alleges 30% of black money routed to Dubai property buys.

Energy & Inflation Watch: India’s finance ministry flagged that Strait of Hormuz disruptions are the biggest driver for retail inflation, with fuel-price hikes, a weaker rupee and a likely below-normal monsoon (El Nino-weakened) raising risks for food and growth; inflation was 3.48% in April. Transport Costs in Focus: Mahanagar Gas hiked Mumbai CNG by ₹2/kg to ₹86 and PNG by 50 paise to ₹52/SCM, reviving auto and taxi fare revision demands. Digital Payments Momentum: Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma said India’s digital payments and mobile economy still have room to expand, with AI set to scale merchant-consumer value. Semiconductor Supply Chain: Nikon is pushing lower-priced lithography tools via in-house manufacturing, while Intel and partners signed a $3.3B India glass substrate deal—both seen as key for AI hardware competition. India-Myanmar Ties: Jaishankar met Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing ahead of Modi talks, focusing on connectivity, trade and border security. Security Update: Delhi court granted 7 days’ police custody to four accused in an ISI-linked case; Delhi Police also claimed a Dawood/ISI-linked terror module bust with arms seized. Policy & Jobs: Punjab approved abolishing the contract system and regularising 65,000 employees. Business Brief: Zara’s India JV (Inditex-Trent) reported FY26 profit down 32% as competition intensified.

Hydrogen & E-fuels Trade Prep: CertifHy and GH2 India signed an LoI at the World Hydrogen Summit 2026 to ready Indian renewable hydrogen and RFNBO e-fuels projects for EU certification, including training via CertifHy Academy and shared EU audit guidance. Myanmar-India Business Push: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing arrived in India for a five-day visit starting at Bodh Gaya, with talks on border security and connectivity plus a business forum; bilateral trade was $1.95 bn in 2025-26. Energy Costs Hit Households: Mahanagar Gas raised Mumbai CNG by ₹2/kg to ₹86 and PNG by 50 paise to ₹52 per SCM, citing West Asia-linked supply disruptions and higher procurement costs; government also asked OMCs to build 30-day LPG reserves. Gold Moves as War Signal: Gold’s reaction to US-Iran war headlines has been “backward” in recent months, with the report arguing the pattern may be short-lived and tied to Strait of Hormuz risk. Banking Profitability Watch: Crisil expects Indian banks’ RoA to slip 10-15 bps to 1.1-1.2% in FY26 on lower treasury income and higher provisioning, even as NIM holds near 2.9%. Semiconductors Strategy: NITI Aayog urged India to build a $120-$150 bn semiconductor value chain by 2035, targeting $135-$180 bn investment over the decade and stronger public de-risking to crowd in private capital. Policy for CSR Funding: India allowed companies to invest up to 10% of CSR spend in zero-coupon, zero-principal instruments via the Social Stock Exchange to ease compliance and fund NPO projects.

WTO Trade Row: India blocked China’s first WTO request to form a dispute panel over India’s solar PLI incentives and higher duties on some technology imports, with China able to renew the bid at the next DSB meeting. India-US Push: Commerce minister Piyush Goyal met US business leaders in New York to deepen investment and tech ties, including AI, finance, manufacturing and digital payments. RBI Outlook & Fraud: RBI projected 6.9% GDP growth for FY27 while flagging rising banking fraud value (₹48,021 crore in FY26) despite a lower number of cases. NEET Refund Relief: NTA extended the NEET-UG 2026 bank-details deadline for fee refunds to June 22; retest is set for June 21. Monsoon Watch: IMD forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall at 90% of LPA with hotter June conditions, raising kharif and inflation risks. SEBI Action: SEBI penalised Suzlon Energy and executives ₹28.95 crore over alleged misleading financial transactions. Solar & Energy Industry: Delhi Test House got IEC CB Testing Laboratory recognition for solar PV module testing; Mumbai saw CNG/PNG price hikes amid West Asia-linked gas cost pressure. Defence & Security: NSA Ajit Doval met Russia’s maritime board chief Patrushev, focusing on Arctic trade routes, shipbuilding and defence collaboration.

Punjab Local Poll Signal: AAP won 131 wards in Punjab’s local body elections, reinforcing its urban governance clout and testing ground for its national ambitions. India–Korea Trade: CEPA upgrade talks ended with both sides agreeing to tackle India’s widening trade deficit via sub-groups on digital trade, supply chains and strategic industry cooperation. TN CM Delhi Trip: Tamil Nadu CM Vijay returned to Chennai after meeting Modi and Sitharaman, but skipped Congress leaders. Banking & Cash: RBI data shows counterfeit ₹500 notes rose 20.5% to 1.42 lakh in 2025-26; RBI also flagged fewer but higher-value bank fraud cases. Corporate Earnings & Markets: RBI projects India’s growth at 6.9% for 2026-27; stocks saw IT-led strength as crude eased. Policy & Refunds: NEET-UG 2026 fee refund bank-detail deadline extended to June 22. Business Deals: Loop Industries signed an MoU for its first commercial recycled PET plant in Gujarat; Google Cloud is embedding Gemini into long-term India contracts. Global Ties: India–Canada reaffirmed CEPA push and $50 bn trade goal; Piyush Goyal met US industry leaders in New York to deepen investment and supply-chain links. Energy & Weather: Monsoon rains likely below average in 2026 due to El Nino, raising farm and growth concerns. Defence/Industry: India’s AMCA RFP process continues as the next step in defence manufacturing.

India-Canada Trade Push: Piyush Goyal’s Canada visit ends with both sides reaffirming a $50 billion trade goal by 2030, with CEPA talks aimed to wrap by year-end and an early-harvest pact on the table. Global Markets & Energy Shock: A WEF survey flags worsening global growth and rising inflation risks as the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions strain supply chains and energy/food costs; India is seen as the standout growth prospect. Banking Governance: HDFC Bank says an internal audit observation cited in media won’t affect financial statements and doesn’t require disclosure, after shares fell in intraday trade. Defence Industry: India’s AMCA stealth fighter programme is moving toward private-sector participation, signalling a shift in how the defence-industrial ecosystem will be built. Urban & Public Policy: Delhi L-G reviews heatwave relief with cooling zones for vulnerable groups; Mumbai University starts online admissions for distance/online courses for 2026-27. Regional Diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing will visit India May 30–June 3 for talks with Modi and a business forum, while India-China border talks in Beijing report progress toward normalization. Health & Safety: India’s dengue vaccine Qdenga rollout is discussed amid the need for an integrated control strategy; a Madras HC orders an insurer to pay ₹5 lakh to kin of a bull-gored victim in a jallikattu case.

OIL Green Energy JV: Oil India’s green arm OGEL has signed a 50:50 joint venture with Hindustan Waste Treatment to build compressed biogas and waste-to-energy projects nationwide, betting on India’s clean-energy and circular-economy push. AI & SaaS shift: Faster AI development is forcing Indian SaaS firms to rethink delivery and pricing, moving from seat-based models toward pay-as-you-go. Markets & oil: Sensex slipped ~0.2% as oil jumped on fresh US-Iran tensions; India VIX eased ~6%, suggesting investors aren’t fully panicking. Banking & governance: HDFC Bank remains under scrutiny after reports alleging it paid Rs 45 crore to attract deposits via MSRDC-linked arrangements; the bank denies wrongdoing. India-Canada trade push: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in Toronto reaffirmed the USD 50 billion trade goal by 2030 and aims to close CEPA talks by year-end. West Asia impact on tolls: Crisil expects India toll collection growth to moderate to 5-7% this fiscal due to freight and activity slowdown. Ebola watch: Gujarat isolated four people after a Congo-linked traveller showed fever; tests are underway and no confirmed case reported. Energy & finance policy: Finance Ministry will conduct field visits to manufacturing clusters to gather ground-level inputs for Budget planning amid West Asia-linked cost pressures.

Municipal Water Watch: Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation says potable water is back across nodes after a two-day Morbe pipeline shutdown; samples from Juinagar, Nerul and Sanpada were found fit for drinking. Urban Safety & Monsoon Readiness: BMC data shows 79 of 141 C1 (dangerous) private buildings in Mumbai are still occupied, keeping evacuation pressure high as monsoon risks rise. Consumer Rights: Mumbai’s consumer commission orders IndiGo to pay ₹67,000 and refund fares after wrongfully denying boarding to a woman travelling with an infant. Heritage Maintenance: BMC Standing Committee clears a ₹2.37 crore plan to restore and maintain six heritage fountains and 16 statues in Fort, with conservation experts to oversee upkeep. Aviation Cost Pressure: IndiGo and Air India have cut June-July domestic flights (IndiGo 7–10%, Air India ~22%) citing jet fuel spikes linked to the Iran war. Energy & Fuel Supply: Govt says petrol/diesel availability is adequate and that PSU oil firms are absorbing ~₹550 crore daily losses; it warns against diversion of subsidised retail fuel. AI & Startups: Anthropic hires ex-Microsoft executive Sangeeta Bavi to lead sales for startups and mid-market in India. Trade Diplomacy: A US delegation will visit India June 1–4 to finalise an interim trade pact and advance the broader bilateral trade agreement. Capital Markets Rule Tightening: SEBI is set to tighten oversight of how companies use equity funds raised from public markets, with greater reporting and penalties via monitoring agencies. Defence Procurement: India invites bids for the AMCA stealth fighter programme, with three shortlisted Indian contenders competing for development of prototypes.

Defence Procurement: India’s Rafale push moves closer as the IAF finalises the Letter of Request for 114 jets, expected to be sent to France soon—potentially a ~₹3.25 lakh crore mega deal. Green Rail: Railways clears a 10-car hydrogen fuel-cell DEMU for the Jind–Sonipat route with safety conditions, adding to India’s push for cleaner mobility. Markets & FX: Stocks drifted lower amid West Asia jitters and fresh foreign outflows; the rupee remains under pressure. Banking Watch: HDFC Bank shares slide after reports of “marketing spend” payments to attract deposits, raising fresh governance questions. Cybersecurity: India tests public-facing financial and government software for vulnerabilities tied to Anthropic’s Mythos, with Infosys/TCS and CERT-In in the spotlight. Trade & Diplomacy: Piyush Goyal and Canada’s team press for a CEPA by year-end and a target to triple trade to $50 bn by 2030. Energy Inflation: Fuel hikes and higher gold/silver import duties could lift CPI toward 5%, with RBI likely to wait-and-watch. Local Impact: Farmers protest MAPP for rabi onions in Nashik; traders warn damaged supplies could spike prices ahead of Diwali. Security: Mumbai Crime Branch arrests online loan recovery agents accused of threats and harassment.

India-US Critical Minerals: Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a new framework to secure critical minerals and rare earth supply chains, aiming to cut “single-source” risk and boost mining, processing, recycling and investment. Quad Momentum: The Quad also pushed fresh Indo-Pacific and maritime-security initiatives out of New Delhi, with critical minerals now a core deliverable. J&K Pushback: India rejected “unwarranted references” to Jammu and Kashmir in a China-Pakistan joint statement, reiterating J&K and Ladakh are “inalienable parts” of India and opposing any CPEC-linked moves. Fuel Pressure: Fuel prices are rising again, with the “boiling frog” effect back in focus as small hikes compound into wider cost stress. Solar Localisation: MNRE says new solar projects must use approved domestically made cells from June 1, with extensions only for projects already materially progressed. Markets & Cities: Delhi raised ration-card income eligibility to Rs 2.5 lakh; Navi Mumbai imposed a 10% water cut from May 28; NHAI invited bids for a 130-km Mumbai-Pune greenfield expressway DPR. Sports & Culture: Vijay Shankar signed with Kandy Royals for LPL 2026; World Yogasana Championship 2026 launched in Ahmedabad for June 4-8.

Quad Momentum: Quad foreign ministers met in New Delhi with Jaishankar pushing to tackle connectivity choke points, supply-chain gaps and critical-infrastructure concentration as China’s rise and West Asia tensions loom. US-India Minerals Deal: India and the US signed a framework to secure critical minerals and rare earths across mining, processing, recycling and investment. India-Canada CEPA Push: Piyush Goyal said the free trade/CEPA talks aim to finish by year-end, targeting $50 bn trade by 2030, after Carney’s visit reset ties. Retail & Tech: Target’s India head says it’s moving to “running on AI,” while Schneider expects India data centers to outgrow core growth; quick-commerce keeps sprinting with Fairdeal.Market raising $15m and Nongshim partnering with Blinkit. Cost Pressure: Delhi CNG prices crossed ₹83/kg again, adding to fuel-driven inflation worries. Markets: Equities traded flat amid US-Iran strike headlines. Business & Crime: Sahu International plans a ₹700m RMG unit in UP’s YEIDA; DRDO complex burglary reported in Delhi.

Markets & Policy: NSE and BSE will stay shut on May 28 for Bakri Eid, the second exchange holiday this month, with Muharram next on June 26. Urban Governance: BMC signed an MoU with IIM Mumbai to push research-driven, data-led city management, while it also rolled out tougher cleanliness fines—₹350 for spitting and ₹500 for littering. Forex & Energy: The rupee gained 34 paise to close at 95.26 as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal lifted global sentiment. Trade Diplomacy: In Ottawa, Piyush Goyal said Mark Carney’s visit helped reset Canada-India ties and both sides aim to finish an FTA in 2026, with trade targets rising to $50B by 2030. Geopolitics: India hosts the Quad foreign ministers meeting in Delhi amid West Asia tensions. Industry Moves: JSW Steel, Bharatia and Carbon Iceland will explore a green eMethanol project using captured emissions and renewable hydrogen. Corporate/Finance: India’s India Post revenue jumped to ₹15,373 crore in FY26 as parcels and logistics scaled with tech upgrades.

Fuel Shock: Petrol and diesel prices were hiked again across India for the fourth time in under two weeks, with Delhi petrol now at ₹102.12/litre and diesel at ₹95.20/litre, as Middle East tensions keep crude and shipping risks elevated. Markets: The Sensex and Nifty jumped in early trade as crude slid below $100 on hopes around US-Iran talks, lifting sentiment even as investors watch for clarity. US-India Reset: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Jaishankar and Modi, pushing a “sustainable” trade push and energy/defence cooperation, while Trump praised Modi and signalled he won’t rush an Iran deal. Quad Momentum: Australia’s Penny Wong is set to join the Quad foreign ministers’ meet in New Delhi on May 26. Corporate Moves: Cyient Semiconductors secured strategic financing from Edelweiss at about a $500m valuation to scale power-focused AI chips. Health & Safety: Heatstroke deaths were reported in southern India as warnings continue; Delhi also stepped up action against wrong-side driving with thousands of challans and FIRs.

Heatwave Toll: Telangana reported at least 16 heatstroke deaths as temperatures stay above 45°C, with officials urging extra vigilance for elderly, children and pregnant women. Rupee & Fuel Shock: A sharp rupee slide to a historic low near 96 and West Asia-linked crude volatility are feeding higher fuel costs that ripple into transport, food and household budgets. US-India Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the trade deal is down to “final details,” while Donald Trump—at the US 250th Independence Day event in Delhi—called Modi his “friend” and said India can count on him “100%.” Trade Politics: Congress hit back at Rubio’s claim of $500 billion US goods purchases over five years, calling it against India’s interests amid inflation fears. Power Sector Row: Telangana’s KTR slammed plans for prepaid electricity meters, alleging a move to end free power and push privatisation. Public Health Push: BMC will launch “TB-Free Mumbai” on May 26.