AGP Executive Report

Satellite Telecom: Elon Musk escalated his Starlink dispute by taunting Mukesh Ambani over the company’s delayed India launch. The government rejected claims of favouritism, saying providers face the same security checks and spectrum clearances. Clean Energy: India plans to repower 25 GW of ageing wind projects as it pursues 100 GW of wind capacity by 2030. Avaada Electro is also preparing a $786 million IPO in November, adding to a strong year for Indian listings. US-India Tech: New US curbs on green-card sponsorship by eight technology companies, including Infosys, TCS, Wipro and HCL, have drawn a sharp response from New Delhi. The move does not cancel existing H-1B visas but could disrupt eligible workers’ path to permanent residency. Regional Power Links: India and Singapore are exploring a 2,000 MW electricity corridor through Southeast Asia, though Singapore’s wider import plans face delays. Growth Outlook: A UN report projects India’s economy to grow 7.3% in FY27, supported by domestic demand and public infrastructure.

IT & Trade: The U.S. suspended green-card labour applications for eight tech companies, including Infosys, TCS, Wipro and HCL. India says existing H-1B visas remain valid, but warns the move could disrupt permanent-residency plans; GTRI says the protectionist shift puts pressure on Indian IT exports. Markets: Sensex rose 879 points on Friday as IT stocks rallied, while government bonds logged an eighth straight weekly decline after the RBI’s rate hike and hawkish shift. Satellite Telecom: India rejected Elon Musk’s claim that business interests are blocking Starlink, saying all operators must meet security rules before launch. Growth: UNCTAD forecasts 7.3% GDP growth for India in FY27, supported by domestic demand, manufacturing and infrastructure spending. Trade & Industry: India and ASEAN agreed to fast-track pending chapters in their trade pact review, with the next meeting set for January. A proposed cap on trade margins for non-scheduled cancer drugs could also reduce prices.

Markets: Sensex plunged 1,045 points and the Nifty hit a 21-month low as higher oil prices and foreign investor outflows rattled stocks. GST Reforms: The Council cleared easier compliance measures, including an annual return option for 16 lakh small businesses, and removed tax officers’ arrest powers. Trade: India and the EU plan to sign a free-trade pact in December, with implementation expected by mid-2027; a new coalition will also develop cleaner shipping routes between the markets. Business Outlook: Crisil expects India Inc revenue to grow up to 16.5% in the September quarter, with margins steady. Telecom: Elon Musk’s clash with the government over Starlink’s pending approvals has put satellite competition and security clearances in the spotlight; officials say all three licensed operators are awaiting assessments.

Markets: Sensex fell 1.44% to a 32-month low and the Nifty dropped 1.64% as oil topped $104 a barrel, the rupee weakened and foreign investors extended their sell-off. The RBI’s first rate hike in four years added to pressure. Energy: Refiners are trimming Russian crude purchases as Urals trades at a premium to Brent; West Asian supplies are becoming more attractive. Russia’s share of India’s imports fell to about 35% in September. Telecom: Elon Musk accused unnamed business groups of blocking Starlink, but the government rejected the charge, saying providers face the same rules. Starlink still needs security clearance and spectrum allocation. Trade: A UK business delegation, led by Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, will visit Delhi and Mumbai next week to pursue deals under the countries’ new trade pact. Digital payments: India may postpone fees on large UPI transactions until after the festive season, giving providers more time to prepare. Industry: India joined the US and 13 other economies in an initiative to address excess capacity in EVs, batteries, chemicals, semiconductors and solar panels.

Mining Disruption: A BJD blockade over mining rules stranded around 10,000 vehicles in Odisha’s Hemgir coal belt, disrupting mining and transport. Steel Transition: Small Indian steelmakers face pressure to cut emissions but lack affordable technology and financing. Satellite Broadband: Starlink says it has built 20 gateway sites and is ready to launch, but still needs final government clearances. Global Trade: India joined 14 economies in calling for action on excess manufacturing capacity, while its stalled US trade negotiations face a tougher path. Rates and Rupee: The RBI’s first repo-rate increase since 2023 has sent the rupee near record lows; higher borrowing costs could weigh on small businesses, though the central bank expects growth to remain resilient. Growth Outlook: The World Bank raised its FY27 India growth forecast to 7.1%, while India topped a global consumer-confidence ranking.

RBI & Markets: The RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% and shifted to “calibrated tightening,” citing persistent inflation. The rupee weakened to 96.57 per dollar, near a record low, while the Sensex fell 429 points and the Nifty closed below 22,650. Growth Outlook: The World Bank raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, citing strong domestic demand and exports; September services activity also improved, with the PMI at 55.2. Trade: US-India negotiations remain stalled over tariffs and market access, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman warning that further compromise will be difficult. Meanwhile, Ghana-India trade reached $6.5 billion in 2025, up sharply from the previous year, as both countries seek new business opportunities. AI & Investment: The World Bank sees adapting existing AI tools to local needs as a near-term productivity opportunity for Indian firms, while warning that falling behind on AI poses a longer-term risk. Starlink says it has built 20 India gateway sites and is awaiting final clearances to launch.

World Bank Outlook: The World Bank lifted India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% on resilient domestic demand and stronger exports, while flagging moderation ahead. India-US Trade: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said talks with the US have hit a “plateau,” with further concessions “very very difficult,” as tariffs and deficit concerns remain sticking points. Geopolitics & Water: Pakistan warned that any move to deny its Indus waters share could have “serious implications” for regional peace and security, keeping the treaty dispute in focus. Rail & Japan Ties: India’s bullet train project delays are straining relations with Japan, with the route still not ready for passengers a decade after the start. AI & Voice Tech: ElevenLabs said India is now its second-largest market, with voice AI adoption expanding across Indian languages and enterprise use. Semiconductors: Sumitomo Chemical signed an MoU to explore stable semiconductor materials supply in India, including a possible facility linked to Tata Electronics. Markets & Rates: Indian stocks rebounded ahead of the RBI policy call, while investors watched for rate-hike risks. Festive Economy (Mumbai): Adani Electricity promised faster temporary power connections for Navratri/Durga Puja pandals within 48 hours, supporting local business activity. Food Prices: Mumbai coriander prices jumped as unseasonal rain damaged crops and cut arrivals, squeezing household budgets. Court Watch: Delhi court ordered release of 13 students arrested in the CEC protest case on surety and personal bonds.

Retail Shake-up: Seven & i’s 7-Eleven shuts all 31 Reliance-run stores in Mumbai and Pune by Sept 30, citing tough local competition, while the parent says it will explore options long-term. Policy & Trade: Modi tells Switzerland they’ll work for global peace and stability, while Finland’s envoy says bilateral trade could double to $6 bn with the India-EU FTA as a framework. Energy & Industry: Cabinet clears ITLA, an Integrated Transport & Logistics Authority to fix fragmented planning across ministries; separately, Air India Express plans 40+ new routes and ~4,100 weekly flights in winter. Markets & Economy: HSBC PMI shows India services growth at a 3-month high in September (55.2) on stronger orders; World Bank lifts FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%. Legal & Finance: Delhi HC flags Axis Bank arbitrator appointments as a “tip of the iceberg” and rules banks can’t cut fixed-deposit interest set by court orders without justification. Infrastructure & Risk: Aon warns India’s data-centre boom faces power, cyber and resilience risks as capacity could more than quadruple by 2030. Sports Business: IOC invites India (Ahmedabad) and six others to pitch for the 2036 Olympics, with selection expected in mid-2029.

India–Switzerland Diplomacy: PM Narendra Modi said India and Switzerland will work together for global peace and stability amid US-Iran and Ukraine tensions, and agreed to reforms in global institutions, trusted supply chains, and deeper cooperation in defence production and nuclear energy. Trade & Mobility Pacts: The two countries signed a migration and mobility partnership plus agreements on transport, mobility, young professionals exchange and other cooperation, with Switzerland seeking an investment protection deal. RBI/Markets Watch: India’s bond market is pricing a turn before the RBI’s next move, as markets debate rate-hike odds amid inflation pressure. Telecom Growth: TRAI data shows India’s internet subscribers crossed 1.09 billion in FY26; wireless data usage jumped nearly 25% and ARPU rose. Mumbai Infra & Civic Policy: BMC proposed a stricter trenching and reinstatement policy with higher penalties for unauthorised excavation and longer road defect liability. Corporate/Finance: India Ratings upgraded Indian Overseas Bank to IND AA+ (stable); Axis Bank reported strong advances and deposits growth; IIFL Finance allotted INR 46.5 crore market-linked NCDs. Power/Industry: L&T won power transmission orders across Saudi Arabia, UAE and India; MoS Anupriya Patel launched India Chem 2026 in Mumbai.

Food Safety Crackdown: FSSAI ordered Everest cumin powder recall after pesticide residues were found above limits and suspended Creative Bakers’ licence; it also flagged a Nestlé low-fat dairy whitener sample as “unsafe” and “substandard.” Markets & Investor Protection: SEBI chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey warned investors against anonymous tips, finfluencers and “guaranteed” returns as new retail participation rises. Election Governance: The Supreme Court asked the Centre and ECI to explain alleged unilateral decisions by CEC Gyanesh Kumar and also said it never approved modifications to Form 6, seeking records on who changed it. Delhi EV Push: MHI approved 382 EV charging sites in Delhi under the EV policy, with tenders for the first 160–180 sites expected next. Energy Trade: Oman became India’s top LNG supplier in September as imports diversified amid West Asia disruptions. Business & Expansion: L&T’s PT&D bagged EPC orders across India and the Middle East; NetApp named India its fastest-growing Asia market; Crown Worldwide opened a Gurugram facility targeting ₹500 cr revenue by 2030. Mumbai Real Estate: VB Group plans launches across Versova, Santacruz, Dadar and Thane with a topline potential above ₹7,200 cr.

Insurance Regulation: A survey says nearly 70% of Indian insurance buyers back IRDAI’s proposed caps on commissions to intermediaries, and 80% want upfront disclosure of commissions before purchase, as the regulator seeks comments until Oct 25. GST Reform: India’s “Next-Gen GST” push aims to rationalise rates and simplify compliance, with reported taxable supplies rising 25.8% (Oct 2025–Jul 2026). IPO Watch: Inox Clean Energy has filed to raise up to ₹100 bn in an India IPO, betting on India’s clean power buildout. Market Mood: Equities extended an eight-week slide amid crude and bond-yield pressures; Sensex and Nifty fell sharply as FIIs sold. Corporate Finance: NHB has ordered a forensic audit of SRG Housing Finance over possible fictitious loans and manipulated repayment entries. Energy & Trade: India is seeking Middle East equity for downstream refining expansion and is also reviving Brahmaputra trade with a Dibrugarh–Dhaka cargo voyage. Food Safety: FSSAI ordered Everest Food to recall pre-packed cumin powder after pesticide residues exceeded limits. Policy/Monetary: RBI signals “higher for longer” risk as global conditions tighten; economists flag possible rate action amid inflation and oil uncertainty.

RBI & Markets: Investors will watch the RBI policy call, TCS earnings and crude prices after Sensex extended its losing streak for an eighth week, falling sharply amid foreign outflows and higher yields. EV Charging Push: The Ministry of Heavy Industries has approved 382 EV charging sites in Delhi; a tender for the first tranche of 160-180 high-readiness locations is set to follow. Trade Talks: India and Canada begin the 5th CEPA negotiation round in Ottawa on Oct 5, aiming to wrap up by year-end; G20 trade ministers also ended talks without agreement on China-linked overcapacity and forced labour issues. Defence & Aerospace: Lockheed Martin is weighing deeper India manufacturing if it wins a $10.5bn medium transport aircraft bid, while India’s Rafale/MRFA timelines remain in focus. AI & Governance: Experts urge India to build a homegrown AI safety framework for deepfakes, cyberattacks and elections, as RBI flags crypto tech support but cautious stance on cryptocurrencies. Energy Security: Former Singapore FM George Yeo says India and China are better placed for Hormuz disruptions, with India likely to keep buying some Russian oil. Capital Markets: NSE leaders say the next phase is “financialisation” of household savings, not just more demat accounts. Urban Tech: Delhi plans an AI traffic monitoring system with 2,500 cameras to detect jams, accidents and stolen vehicles. Consumer & Retail: Subscription models for premium smartphones and durables are gaining traction as buyers shift from upfront cost to monthly access.

Corporate Updates: Avenue Supermarts (DMart) reported Q2 FY27 revenue of ₹19,206 crore and said it runs 518 stores, while one Navi Mumbai outlet is shut for reconstruction. Banking: Bank of India posted strong Q2 FY27 growth with global business at ₹18.9 lakh crore; Bank of Baroda said global business crossed ₹32.6 trillion. Manufacturing & Metals: MOIL logged higher September manganese production and sales; Hindustan Zinc flagged record Q2 mined metal output and higher refined zinc/lead, with silver up too. Energy & Oil: Vedanta Oil and Gas shared Q2 production updates amid optimization and transition efforts. Retail & Consumer: Baazar Style Retail saw H1 revenue up 6% but Q2 down 10% due to festive calendar shifts; Veerhealth Care secured a ₹454.68 lakh commercial order. Markets & Policy: RBI warned the next financial crisis could start with cyberattacks or tech failures; Crisil said corporates can absorb a 50-bps rate hike. Regulation & Consumer Protection: Delhi panel ordered Swiggy and a restaurant to pay ₹1 lakh over a misleading buffet price. Tech & Governance: Apple removed Jack Dorsey’s Bitchat from India’s App Store after MeitY directions. Geopolitics for Business: India–Taiwan tech cooperation and India–Korea business talks highlighted new investment pathways.

Food Safety Crackdown: FSSAI has ordered a halt on sales of a low-fat dairy whitener in Delhi hotels after lab tests found it “substandard” and “unsafe,” and it’s also proposing tighter rules on “analogue” products marketed as “paneer.” Fuel Prices: Nayara Energy raised petrol by ₹5/litre and diesel by ₹3/litre nationwide, citing higher global crude and refined-product costs. Macro Resilience: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Kautilya Economic Conclave that India has weathered global turbulence with strengthened fundamentals, even as global debt rises and buffers thin. Markets & Rates: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said India stays cautious on cryptocurrencies while backing underlying tech, and warned about cross-border financial risks; separate coverage flags bond yields staying under pressure into October. Energy Security: Hardeep Singh Puri said India will honour diesel export commitments even if the US bans exports, pointing to expanding refining capacity. Defence Deal Watch: IAF chief said India is likely to finalise the 114-Rafale MRFA deal by FY27-end if talks stay on track. Urban Water Stress (Mumbai): BMC reported water stock at 95.84% as monsoon withdrawal nears, while Navi Mumbai faces a deeper crisis with data-centre demand adding pressure. Business Moves: PrudenTech Power and Gita Power inked a pan-India partnership for power trading, AI-enabled procurement and BESS optimisation. Safety Incident: A boiler explosion at a pharma plant in Andhra Pradesh’s Sri City killed at least five workers and injured 10.

Forex & Markets: India’s forex reserves fell $18.34 bn to $747.56 bn in the week ended Sep 25, with declines in foreign currency assets and gold. NBFC Funding: Higher funding costs may cut FY27-28 EPS for NBFCs by up to 12%, as bond yields rise after the RBI’s hawkish tilt. Capital Markets: Bajaj Finance board approved a capital raise up to Rs 17,500 crore via QIP and convertible warrants; SEBI cleared Carlsberg India’s confidential IPO filing. Banking Leadership: ICICI alumni are reshaping private banking leadership, with Anup Bagchi set to take over HDFC Bank and Anup Kumar Saha to lead Kotak Mahindra Bank. Corporate Moves: NCLT okays GE Power India’s demerger into JSW Energy; NCLT admits Kotak Mahindra Bank’s insolvency plea against Unity Realty. Real Economy: Retail gold demand is shifting to smaller cities; GST growth momentum has cooled even as September collections stayed strong. Policy & Trade: Canada’s trade minister will lead a ~300-member business mission for CEPA talks; India-EFTA TEPA marks one year with lessons on market access. Urban & Health: Delhi sees dengue and malaria cases nearly triple since August. Business & Industry: TCS will take over Best Buy’s India GCC to build an AI-native capability center.

Election Commission Pressure: India’s “Cockroach” youth movement escalated protests in Mumbai and New Delhi, demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar over voter-list revisions; Delhi Police detained 700+ protesters and Delhi Metro shut entry-exit at 12 stations around Jantar Mantar. Banking Leadership: HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank named new CEOs from the ICICI alumni pool—Anup Bagchi and Anup Kumar Saha—highlighting how one banking group keeps feeding top management. Energy & Grid: India approved Green Energy Corridor Phase III with 50GWh BESS to cut renewable curtailment caused by transmission bottlenecks, after curtailment surged in 2026. Cyber Security: Microsoft’s Digital Defense Report 2026 ranks India 7th globally for customer hacking impacts, warning of faster, AI-assisted attacks and credential-based entry points. Real Estate Push: West Bengal finance minister invited investors to Kolkata at CREDAI NATCON 2026, promising legislative reforms to revive the city’s business pull. AI Infrastructure: Odisha-backed SentraForge AI plans a 120MW sovereign AI compute project with ₹22,634 crore investment. Trade & Diplomacy: Piyush Goyal met France, Canada and Saudi on deepening trade and pushing India-EU FTA progress and CEPA talks. Markets/Policy: NSE warned investors against illegal “dabba” trading platforms as IPO activity and market volatility continue.